Micro-climatic variations across Malawi have a greater influence on contamination of maize with aflatoxins than with fumonisins.

This study reports levels of aflatoxin and fumonisin in maize samples (n = 1294) from all agroecological zones (AEZs) in Malawi. Most maize samples (> 75%) were contaminated with aflatoxins and 45% with fumonisins, which co-occurred in 38% of the samples. Total aflatoxins varied across the AEZs, according to mean annual temperature (P < 0.05) of the AEZs. Samples from the lower Shire AEZ (median = 20.8 µg/kg) had higher levels of aflatoxins (P < 0.05) than those from the other AEZs (median = 3.0 µg/kg). Additionally, the majority (75%) of the positive samples from the lower Shire AEZ had aflatoxin levels exceeding the EU regulatory limit (4 µg/kg), whereas 25%, 37%, and 39% of positive samples exceeded the threshold in the mid-elevation, Lake Shore and upper and middle Shire, and highlands AEZs, respectively. The lower Shire AEZ is characterised by higher mean temperatures throughout the year and low erratic rainfall. However, total fumonisins did not show significant variation across AEZs, but all positive samples exceeded 150 µg/kg, required for tolerable daily intake of 1.0 µg/kg body weight per day, established by the European Food Safety Authority Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain. Therefore, results of this study suggest that contamination of maize with aflatoxin responds to micro-climate more than with fumonisins. In addition, the data will be useful to public health policy-makers and stakeholders to articulate and implement monitoring and mitigation programs.

Multivariate framework for the assessment of key forcing to Lake Malawi level variations in non-stationary frequency analysis.

Lake Malawi in south eastern Africa is a very important freshwater system for the socio-economic development of the riparian countries and communities. The lake has however experienced considerable recession in the levels in recent years. Consequently, frequency analyses of the lake levels premised on time-invariance (or stationarity) in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution functions (pdfs) can no longer be assumed. In this study, the role of hydroclimate forcing factors (rainfall, lake evaporation, and inflowing discharge) and low frequency climate variability indicators (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation-ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode-IODM) on lake level variations is investigated using a monthly mean lake level dataset from 1899 to 2017. Non-stationarity in the lake levels was tested and confirmed using the Mann-Kendall trend test (α = 0.05 level) for the first moment and the F test for the second moment (α = 0.05 level). Change points in the series were identified using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test. The study also compared stationary and non-stationary lake level frequency during 1961 to 2004, the common period where data were available for all the forcing factors considered. Annual maximum series (AMS) and peak over threshold (POT) analysis were conducted by fitting various candidate extreme value distributions (EVD) and parameter fitting methods. The Akaike information criteria (AIC), Bayesian information criteria (BIC), deviance information criteria (DIC), and likelihood ratios (RL) served as model evaluation criteria. Under stationary conditions, the AMS when fitted to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was found to be superior to POT analysis. For the non-stationary models, open water evaporation as a covariate of the lake levels with the GEV and MLE was found to have the most influence on the lake level variations as compared with rainfall, discharge, and the low frequency climatic forcing. The results are very critical in flood zoning especially with various planned infrastructural developments around the lakeshore.

Climate change in semi-arid Malawi: Perceptions, adaptation strategies and water governance.

Climate change and variability are a threat to sustainable agricultural production in semi-arid areas of Malawi. Overdependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture in these areas calls for the identification of sustainable adaptation strategies. A study was therefore conducted in Chikwawa, a semi-arid district in southern Malawi, to: (1) assess community's perception of a changing climate against empirical evidence, (2) determine their local adaptive measures, (3) evaluate the potential of irrigated agriculture as an adaptive measure in household food security and (4) challenges over access to available water resources. The study employed focus group discussions and key informant interviews to assess people's perceptions of climate change and variability and their desired interventions. To validate the people's perceptions, rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960-2010 were analysed. A participatory complete randomised experimental design in both rain-fed and dry season-irrigated conditions was conducted to assess a maize cropping system that would improve adaptation. The study established persistent declining yields from rain-fed production in part because of perennial rainfall failure. In response, the community has shifted its focus to irrigation as an adaptation strategy, which has in turn triggered water conflicts in the community over the control of the resource. Water legislation however fails to adequately provide for rules governing sharing of water resources between various stakeholders. This article therefore recommends development of an appropriate institutional framework that forms a strong basis for equitable distribution of water for irrigation in areas most vulnerable to extreme climate events - including droughts and floods.